Bocas Violence Declines, Questions Remain
How to explain the upsurge the shutdown of Panama's northern province?
In the stock market, some analysts are so reliably bad at forecasting that their views are seen as a negative signal. If they say buy, you should sell and vice-versa. A tradeable ETF was even set up to take the opposite position to CNBC host Jim Cramer’s bets.
In the sphere of geopolitics, Republican conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer could be considered an equivalent. Here she is on Tuesday:
Funny, because after 45 days of blocked roads and increasing violence, La Prensa’s Ohiggins Arcia had just reported that normality was returning to Bocas del Toro province.
By Wednesday the government crackdown, “Operation Omega,” had arrested 363 people and opened 40 blocked roads. Yes, Starlink was shut down as the government suspended constitutional rights (including habeas corpus) in the province, and there were certainly occasions where the security forces used excessive force. The Ombudsman has opened 50 cases relating to the violation of human rights. However, this is not “the next big conflict that gets stirred up.” In fact, I expect this will be the last time I write about protests (for a while, at least).
On my evening walks on Panama’s seafront promenade, there is a reliable gathering protesting the government’s social security reforms but their numbers seem to dwindle every day. The political temperature, in my view, is cooling. As I mentioned last time, in the cities, months of blocked roads and children missing school has probably diverted public exasperation away from the government to the unions. (In the indigenous comarcas in Ngabe Bugle and Darién, the dynamic is different).
After bananas (gone!) Bocas del Toro’s biggest employer and source of income is tourism. This from a hotelier on one of the islands:
“It's tough in Bocas. There hasn't been gasoline for nearly 2 weeks, no propane for cooking, no bank, no cash, no telephones, internet or electronics. So we can't pay with credit cards. There are no deliveries to the islands, no fresh food, etc. Only food available is what the supermarkets have on the shelves.”
I think its safe to say that most locals aren’t too happy with the blockades. If anything the relatively muted public response to the government’s blunt tactics means the risk isn’t of “chaos,” but the possibility of the Bukele-zation of Panama’s security policy.
Aside from that, the real question is what caused the protests in Bocas del Toro to become so entrenched and violent? Mulino has made it clear that he believes the protests are politically motivated and were perpetrated by criminal gangs receiving outside funding. The principle culprits are apparently two PRD congressmen from Bocas: Crispiano Adames and Benicio Robinson.
That’s only half an answer, however. What were they fighting about and what, exactly were they trying to achieve?
Were they trying to undermine the president?
On 23 May, former president Mireya Moscoso told a radio show that she had overheard members of the National Assembly discussing toppling president Mulino and calling new elections. “There are other hidden things behind these people,” she added. She has since avoided giving any further details to the press. Suspicion has fallen on members of the Vamos party (who denied it outright) rather than the PRD royalty.
Mulino has said the situation in Bocas is result of an “internal conflict” in the PRD. The party of former dictator Omar Torrijos has the best campaign machinery in the country and in the lead up to elections its various factions duke it out to lead the ticket. But that generally doesn’t involve taking provinces hostage.
Hopefully, we’ll get better answers to these questions in the coming weeks.
(clears throat)
In totally unrelated news: On June 11th, Costa Rican police made a major drug bust of a cocaine cartel operating out of Limón container port which just happens to sit up the coast from Bocas del Toro. Apropros of nothing, in 2020 Insight Crime wrote that the Bocas del Toro archipelago:
“…facilitates the hiding and smuggling of drug shipments, and its inaccessibility — road connections only arrived in the 1980s — complicates interdiction efforts. It also shares a porous border with Costa Rica that passes through a national park, in which there is a history of drug trafficking.”
An interesting side-note is that, in May, Costa Rica changed the law to facilitate extradition of drug dealers to the US. On Wednesday a former Costa Rican interior minister was arrested for his role in alleged cocaine trafficking and will be tried in Texas.
I guess the US is really squeezing the Costa Rican government to go after local politicians linked to the drugs trade. I idly wonder, whether such efforts may not be entirely confined to that country’s borders.
OTHER NEWS
VISAS: Last month I suggested the US may use visa threats to pressure Panamanian politicians. Last week Martin Torrijos and Ricardo Lombana saw theirs revoked.
VICTORY LAP: On Tuesday US National Security Secretary Kristi Noem became the third member of Trump’s cabinet to visit Panama since February. She attended a deportation flight and praised the closing of the Darien migrant trail.
IRAN: Boz points out that there’s never been a better time for Iran to instigate attacks in the Americas if, in fact, it can. In 2017 the US arrested a suspected Hezbollah operative accused of scoping out the Panama Canal.
GOLD CUP: Thanks to five goals from striker Ismael Diaz, Panama won all three of its group games in the Gold Cup. The Canaleros face Honduras in the quarter finals tomorrow.
