Colombia: 100 Days of Subterfuge

Once tax reform is passed, a major reshuffle and the true thrust of the Petro government will be revealed in January

Come January, Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo will be gone. Having passed the tax reform and secured his finances, Petro will undertake a major cabinet reshuffle and unveil the true face of his government.

That’s the word in Bogota.

One of the reasons for starting this Substack was to find a place for all the stories too niche or speculative for editors to consider. The day job gives me great access to a wide range of sources across Latin America, but most of what I find out never makes it onto the web.

For the last two months the number one question I get from my clients is What is Petro planning for my industry and who the hell is this new minister? So I’ve consolidated dozens of off-the record chats and here is my analysis.

The current government is split into what I’ll call the A Team and B Team ministers. The A Team are there to steady the ship and get the important tasks done. Ocampo is a respected economist, he’ll get a tax reform through by the end of the year. Armando Benedetti, a man apparently unencumbered by the mountain of corruption allegations against him, is just the kind of guy to ignore the Maduro regime’s human rights record in order to secure economic gain for both countries (and with the reopening of the border, that’s happening quickly). With regards to the ‘total peace’ deal Petro wants to make with the ELN and organized crime groups, you couldn’t ask for a more experienced negotiator than Álvaro Leyva Durán, the foreign minister.

Then there’s the B team. I believe they were put in place to keep Petro’s base happy and they certainly come out with some wacky quotes. The Minister of Mines thinks a key part of her role is to convince other countries to consume less minerals. The Minister of Work wants to see the policies of “Chavez, Maduro and Correa” implemented in Colombia. The Minister of Health has gone on the attack against the EPS health insurers with an apparent misunderstanding of the fundamental legal and financial issues that plague the sector. The B team is more bark than bite. These areas are not priorities for reform.

Tax reform is, however. The belief amongst my sources is that Ocampo will deliver his reform and depart the scene with his impeccable reputation intact, back to his office at Columbia university. As for his replacement, I have a name and it’s the son of a former president.

So the first 100 days of Petro’s presidency are a phony war, balancing the delicate negotiations around tax reform with populist noise. What happens in January is for another post.