Highway to the Danger Zone
Hegseth's Maverick diplomacy risks a Panamanian political crisis
Back in November, a Fox News anchor said he wanted to hire the director of Top Gun: Maverick to make recruitment videos for the US military. On his visit to Panama, the now Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth took on the task himself.
Last Tuesday the good residents of Panama Pacifico were awakened at 4am to the reassuring sound of F-16s burning their jet engines. Later, on Panama City’s seafront boulevard, elderly dog-walkers were treated to the sight of Hegseth smashing out some half push-ups in a paratroopers T-shirt.
The USS Chosin, a guided-missile cruiser, paid a friendly visit to Central American shores. Hegseth, sporting a Stars & Stripes belt buckle, told the crew he was here to restore “the warrior ethos” in one of “the best speeches to troops” the accompanying Breitbart correspondent had ever heard.
At the following day’s press conference, Hegseth purred about the return of the US army’s “Jungle School” to its former base at Fort Sherman. In front of Panama’s oldest cathedral, the US Marines Band gave a stirring rendition of the theme from Top Gun and that movie’s signature track, Danger Zone by Kenny Loggins.
The USA is back, baby! And what better way to show that the military has turned its back on that “DEI woke shit” than by extorting, deceiving and humiliating a Central American ally of four million people?
Because that is exactly what happened here. Every serious Panamanian analyst I listen to and read agrees. I wrote last Wednesday on the flare-up over Hegseth’s failure to recognize Panamanian sovereignty of the Canal and I will probably focus on the details of the “military cooperation” MOU and the “First and Free” transit of US naval vessels in a future post. This is about the vibes.
It says a lot about the last 35 years of warm US-Panamanian relations that the Marines Band performance in Casco Viejo was attended by a few hundred middle-class locals, many of them bobbing their heads along in baseball caps with the slogan Estamos Unidos (we are united) handed out by US embassy staff. Last year over 90% of Panamanians said they believed their country had good relations with the northern superpower.
In a repeat of Marco Rubio’s visit in February, Hegseth’s meetings with the Panamanian government were polite and respectful, but his subsequent comments undermined his hosts. This time, upon returning to Washington DC, Hegseth schmoosed his boss by boasting of his “historic deals.” Then he blamed Barrack Obama for letting the Chinese “creep in” to the Canal, a quite astounding statement considering Panama’s recognition of Beijing (which opened the door for investment) happened in 2017, under Trump’s watch. Not quite done, he told later told Fox News that he could “feel” the “communism” in the air at the Panama Canal, in a country where the socialist party regularly polls around 1% at elections.
To give Hegseth’s his dues, he did remember Mulino’s name and did call him a “great ally.” But like Rubio before him, the Secretary of Defense is under pressure to talk-up the significance of the deals and the robustness of US policy to both stroke Trump’s ego and appeal to his political base. At the same time, however, the Panamanian government is contorting itself to play-down the deals which certainly seem to break the spirit of the Canal’s neutrality treaty and quite possibly the letter of the law, too.
It is now clear that my hunch was right. Someone in the Defense Department deleted the line in the agreed joint statements that recognized Panama’s sovereignty of the Canal. (When they make a movie about this farce, I think the casting director would see wise to assign that particular character to Jonah Hill rather than Tom Cruise.) When La Prensa journalists read the Spanish-language version (which included the reference to sovereignty), they hailed Mulino for “defending [the Canal] with dignity.”
Without the line he looks like a chump. And now his presidency hangs by a thread.
First came a criminal case against him for damaging “the international standing of the state.” It is unlikely to be successful. Yesterday a stronger case declaring the MOU on joint military facilities to be unconstitutional was lodged a the Supreme Court. For the last two weeks Zulay Rodriguez has been trying to gather signatures for a popular impeachment of Mulino (they would require 30% of all voters). Ricardo Lombana, who finished third in last year’s elections told me the deal with the US represented a camouflaged invasion.
I think Mulino can probably withstand this first wave of legal assaults. Mass protests are planned for 23 April and I don’t sense the same level of disdain for the government that was lingering in 2023 when anti-mining protests shut-down the country.
But TikTok.
I don’t want to be conspiratorial but if there was ever a moment for someone in Beijing to lean on the social media algorithm to enrage a small nation against its pro-US president, it’s now. If US imperialism doesn’t get Panamanian blood boiling, then it could be the social security reforms, the proposed reopening of the copper mine, or the construction of the Rio Indio dam. We’ve seen that blocking the Panamerican highway can effectively paralyze the country.
If that happens, then it becomes quite possible that the national assembly turns against Mulino. His own party is loyal to Ricardo Martinelli, who is not pleased that his running mate has failed to secure him safe passage to Nicaragua. Martin Torrijos has a name associated with restoring national pride and the backing of much of the PRD. The leader of the Panameñista party just came back from China. It’s not hard to imagine that a broad coalition could form to make Mulino’s position untenable.
He does, at least appear to recognize that a change of strategy is necessary. In Peru he was critical of the US’s handling of the diplomatic crisis and got Dina Boluarte to recognize Panama’s sovereignty of the Canal. The country’s vice-minister of Foreign Affairs - who was criticized for being too cosy with Washington - was “resigned” yesterday. It was he who insisted the president should attend the signing of the MOUs, and the resulting photos of him shaking hands with Hegseth have been described by many Panamanians as the antithesis of the signing of the Torrijos-Carter treaties. Mulino has also started giving interviews to the media (although the last two weekly press conferences have been cancelled).
But this may be too little, too late. In the latest polls, 68% of voters have a negative perception of his presidency. So far Mulino has dealt uncomplainingly with US demands and demonstrated a mania for awarding infrastructure contracts to American firms. He is the most pro-US president any Kissingerian could wish up and, should he be toppled, the new guy (or woman) would have take a far more anti-gringo stance. They would attempt to tear-up the offending agreements, go back on the previous migration deal and, just maybe, find ways to impede American use of the Canal.
US policy therefore risks backfiring and for what? To build military bases around a Canal that doesn’t need defending? To save the Pentagon 0.000000001% of its annual budget that it currently spends transiting warships through the Canal?
It makes no sense. But then you wonder:
If an anti-US government were to come to power in Panama, would that be grounds enough for a repeat of Operation Just Cause?
The changing mood in Panama is palpable, even to the wholesome, cleanshaven members of the US Marines Band. They were due to play a final gig the day after Hegseth’s departure. Wisely, they cancelled.
Excellent Mat, thank you.