Six Panama Stories for 2026

It's going to be a transformational year on the isthmus

A more consistent poster would have got this note out before the end of 2025 (I have my reasons¹). Having made global headlines thanks to Donald Trump’s threats last year, I think Panama is in for another transformational year both economically and geopolitically. Here are six stories I’ll be following closely in 2026.

1. Ports Chaos. CK Hutchinson is not going down without a fight. On February 10th its Panamanian subsidiary informed Maersk it would take legal action against the Danish company should APM Terminals take over operation of the ports. Will CK Hutchison go as far as to penalize Maersk ships from docking at its global ports? If Maersk decides this is all too messy, who will run the ports?

   It is suspected that three other ports (run by US, Taiwanese and Singaporean firms) have also paid scant royalties to the state. Can CK Hutchison pressure the government to make their competitors’ contributions public, potentially strengthening their case that they have been singled out for political reasons? This story is far from over and has the potential for trade disruption.

2. New Concessions. April 8th is the date the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will send out its request for proposals (RFPs) for the Telfers and Corozal ports. The RFP for a Liquid Petroleum Gas pipeline is expected later in the year. Along with the Rio Indio dam, crucial for maintaining water levels in the Canal, these projects make up the ACP’s Vision 3.0 plan. If Maersk wins the Balboa and Cristobal contracts, as seems likely, I expect MSC to be strong contenders for the Atlantic-side Telfers port in particular, given they already have partial ownership of PSA on the Pacific side.

   Three points of note. Firstly, this is the first time major ACP projects have gone to RFP stage without detailed economic studies. A rushed response, no doubt, to US pressure. Secondly, despite the ACP claiming the tenders are unaffected by the PPC fiasco, I hear rumblings that the RFPs may have to be revised to take into account the Supreme Court ruling. Lastly, the terms will surely be revised to prevent COSCO making their bid.

3. The Minerá Panama Mine returns to operation. The ports ruling declared the concession contract unconstitutional, yet the ports in question are still operating. That’s a point not lost on First Quantum Minerals, which saw its copper mine shut down after its contract was similarly declared void. In January Mulino authorized the export of remaining ore from the site and an environmental audit is due for completion in April. US investment bank Morgan Stanley expects the government to reopen the mine by decree at the end of the year. This will lead to more protests and wrangling about the type of operating contract, but it would lead to a major boost in GDP, probably felt most in 2028.

4. The ACP elects a new administrator. When the government went into ostrich mode, it was Ricaurte Velasquez who explained and defended Canal neutrality to the international media. The ACP administrator is the second most important position in the country and, after his seven year spell, the board will vote whether to stick or twist with their man. Catín, as he is known locally, has been focused on the Canal’s bottom line and brought in record revenues for the government. However, this meant angering the unions and delaying key infrastructure projects. His tweaks to the auction system meant that the Canal made more money in drought years than normal ones. The latter point was a bone of contention for US shippers and hurts his chances of continuing in his post to oversee the Vision 3.0 projects. His deputy, Ilya Espino de Marotta, or the experienced Rodolfo Sabonge are favorites to replace him.

5. Colón under the spotlight. My 2023 article on the Colón Free Trade Zone’s role in the international drugs trade was called “slanderous” by its General Manager. But the DEA has long believed there is “no finer place…to go about a drugs-for-arms deal.” Last year we saw some police busts on vendors of counterfeit Chinese goods in the CFTZ but this year the US Department of Justice’s Trade Fraud Task Force says it will be “accelerating” its efforts against tariff evasion and “origin washing” through third party transshipment. Combined with US support for biometric identification and satellite surveillance, I expect to see further pressure to clean up the zone in 2026.

6. Credit rating review. In November 2026 Fitch Ratings is due to review the BB+ (non-investment grade) downgrade it gave to Panama in March 2024 due to “fiscal and governance issues” aggravated by the closure of the copper mine. Since then, Minister of Economy & Finance, Felipe Chapman has shrunk the fiscal deficit to 3.68% of GDP (from 7.35%) and this week Panama bought back $3 billion bonds at lower rates. The IMF forecasts a bullish 4% growth this year. After the mad profligacy of the Cortizo government, the country’s balance sheet is looking much healthier but the the ports fiasco has compounded the aforementioned “governance issues.” I expect ratings will stay put.

1. I moved to Taiwan in September last year so our firstborn could spend his first months closer to his grandparents. Mother and baby doing well, back to LatAm in April.